Nikolov P, Adelman A.
Do Private Household Transfers to the Elderly Respond to Public Pension Benefits? Evidence from Rural China. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing. 2019;14 (100204).
Publisher's VersionAbstractAging populations in developing countries have spurred the introduction of public pension programs to preserve the standard of living for the elderly. The often-overlooked mechanism of intergenerational transfers, however, can dampen these intended policy effects, as adult children who make income contributions to their parents could adjust their behavior in response to changes in their parents’ income. Exploiting a unique policy intervention in China, we examine using a difference-in-difference-in-differences (DDD) approach how a new pension program impacts inter vivos transfers. We show that pension benefits lower the propensity of adult children to transfer income to elderly parents in the context of a large middle-income country, and we also estimate a small crowd-out effect. Taken together, these estimates fit the pattern of previous research in high-income countries, although our estimates of the crowd-out effect are significantly smaller than previous studies in both middle- and high-income countries.
3.privatetransferscrowdout_for_wp_posting.pdf Jimi N, Nikolov P, Malek M, Kumbhakar S.
Productivity Effect of Credit Access for Microenterprises: Separating Technical Change from Technical Efficiency Change. Journal of Productivity Analysis. 2019;52 :37–55.
Publisher's VersionAbstractProductivity improvements among microenterprises are important, especially for low-income countries where market imperfections are pervasive and resources are scarce. Relaxing credit constraints can influence input choice of microenterprises and the efficiency of transforming inputs into output. Using a field experiment among agricultural microenterprises in Bangladesh, we estimate the impact of expanding credit access on productivity of rice farmers and disentangle the total effect into technological change (frontier shift) and efficiency change. We find that, relative to the baseline rice output per decimal, credit access resulted, on average, in approximately 13 percent increase in yield. The effect is doubled on modern hybrid rice and almost zero on traditional rice types. Approximately 9 percent of the output effect comes from change in technology and 3 percent increase in output is attributed to improvement in technical efficiency, on average. Within the treatment group, the effect is larger among pure tenant and mixed tenant microenterprise households than microenterprises who cultivate only their own lands.
creditefficiencybangladesh.pdf Nikolov P, Adelman A.
Short-Run Health Consequences of Retirement and Pension Benefits: Evidence from China. Forum for Health Economics & Policy. 2019.
Publisher's VersionAbstractThis paper examines the impact of the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) in China. Exploiting the staggered implementation of an NRPS policy expansion that began in 2009, we use a difference-in-difference approach to study the effects of the introduction of pension benefits on the health status, health behaviors, and healthcare utilization of rural Chinese adults age 60 and above. The results point to three main conclusions. First, in addition to improvements in self-reported health, older adults with access to the pension program experienced significant improvements in several important measures of health, including mobility, self-care, usual activities, and vision. Second, regarding the functional domains of mobility and self-care, we found that the females in the study group led in improvements over their male counterparts. Third, in our search for the mechanisms that drive positive retirement program results, we find evidence that changes in individual health behaviors, such as a reduction in drinking and smoking, and improved sleep habits, play an important role. Our findings point to the potential benefits of retirement programs resulting from social spillover effects. In addition, these programs may lessen the morbidity burden among the retired population
nrps_health.pdf Ye M, Zheng J, Nikolov P, Asher S.
One Step at a Time: Does Gradualism Build Coordination?. Management Science. 2019.
AbstractThis study investigates a potential mechanism to promote coordination. With theoretical guidance using a belief-based learning model, we conduct a multi-period, binary-choice, and weakest-link laboratory coordination experiment to study the effect of gradualism – increasing the required levels (stakes) of contributions slowly over time rather than requiring a high level of contribution immediately – on group coordination performance. We randomly assign subjects to three treatments: starting and continuing at a high stake, starting at a low stake but jumping to a high stake after a few periods, and starting at a low stake while gradually increasing the stakes over time (the Gradualism treatment). We find that relative to the other two treatments, groups coordinate most successfully at high stakes in the Gradualism treatment. We also find evidence that supports the belief-based learning model. These findings point to a simple mechanism for promoting successful voluntary coordination.
gradualism.pdf Vocational training programs and youth labor market outcomes: Evidence from Nepal. Journal of Development Economics. 2019;136 (1) :71-110.
AbstractLack of skills is arguably one of the most important determinants of high levels of unemployment and poverty. In response, policymakers often initiate vocational training programs in efforts to enhance skill formation among the youth. Using a regression-discontinuity design, we examine a large youth training intervention in Nepal. We find, twelve months after the start of the training program, that the intervention generated an increase in non-farm employment of 10 percentage points (ITT estimates) and up to 31 percentage points for program compliers (LATE estimates). We also detect sizable gains in monthly earnings largely driven by women who start self-employment activities inside their homes. We argue that low baseline educational attainment levels, low levels of non-farm employment levels, and Nepal’s social norms towards women contribute to the large program impacts.
nepal_jde.pdf