Academic Papers

Rogoff, Kenneth. 2019. “Is This the Beginning of the End of Central Bank Independence? .” G30 Occasional Paper. Video
Rogoff, Kenneth, Kenneth Froot, and Michael Kim. 2019. “The Law of One Price Over 700 Years.” Annals of Economics and Finance 20 (1): 1-35. AEF
Ilzetzki, Ethan, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2019. “Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?” Quarterly Journal of Economics 134 (2): 599-646. DATA;
PDF Appendix NBER Working Paper 23134 2018
Magud, Nicolas E., Carmen M. Reinhart, and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2018. “Capital Controls: Myth and Reality.” Annals of Economics and Finance 19 (1): 1-47. AEF
Capital Controls: Myth and Reality
2017. “Dealing with Monetary Paralysis at the Zero Bound.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 31 (3): 47-66. JEP
2017. “Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World.” Journal of Policy Modeling 39 (4): 673-679. JPM
Ilzetzki, Ethan, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2017. “The Country Chronologies to Exchange Rate Arrangements into the 21st Century: Will the Anchor Currency Hold?”.
NBER Working Paper 23135
Rogoff, Kenneth. 2016. “Debt Supercycle, Not Secular Stagnation.” Progress and Confusion: The State of Macroeconomic Policy. Cambridge: MIT Press, pp. 19-28. Version in VoxEU
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff. 2016. “Sovereign Debt and Financial Crises: Theory and Historical Evidence.” Journal of the European Economic Association 14 (1): 1-6. JEEA
Ferraro, Domenico, Kenneth Rogoff, and Barbara Rossi. 2015. “Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?” 54 (June): 116-141. JIMF Abstract

This paper investigates whether oil prices have a reliable and stable out-of-sample relationship with the Canadian/U.S dollar nominal exchange rate. Despite state-of-the-art methodologies, we find little systematic relation between oil prices and the exchange rate at the monthly and quarterly frequencies. In contrast, the main contribution is to show the existence of a very short-term relationship at the daily frequency, which is rather robust and holds no matter whether we use contemporaneous (realized) or lagged oil prices in our regression. However, in the latter case the predictive ability is ephemeral, mostly appearing after instabilities have been appropriately taken into account.

Reinhart, Carmen M, Vincent Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff. 2015. “Dealing with Debt.” Journal of International Economics 96, Supplement 1 (July): S43-S55. Publisher's Version;
PDF HKS Working Paper Version
Rogoff, Kenneth, and Takeshi Tashiro. 2015. “Japan's Exorbitant Privilege.” Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 35 (March): 43-61. JJIE Abstract
REITI Working Paper 2014 Update Dataset, November 2014 Updated data for Tables 1-3, May 2015.
Rogoff, Kenneth S. 2015. “Costs and Benefits to Phasing Out Paper Currency.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Vol. 29: 445-456. Macro Annual Abstract

Despite advances in transactions technologies, paper currency still constitutes a notable percentage of the money supply in most countries. For example, it constitutes roughly 10% of the US Federal Reserve’s main monetary aggregate, M2. Yet, it has important drawbacks. First, it can help facilitate activity in the underground (tax-evading) and illegal economy. Second, its existence creates the artifact of the zero bound on the nominal interest rate. On the other hand, the enduring popularity of paper currency generates many benefits, including substantial seigniorage revenue. This paper explores some of the issues associated with phasing out paper currency, especially large-denomination notes.

NBER Working Paper 20126
Mozaffarian, Dariush, Kenneth S Rogoff, and David S Ludwig. 2014. “The Real Cost of Food: Can Taxes and Subsidies Improve Public Health?” Journal of the American Medical Association 312 (9): 889-890. JAMA
Reinhart, Carmen M, and Kenneth S Rogoff. 2014. “Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes.” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 104 (5): 50-55. AER, including data and appendix;
Article Postprint Version
Reinhart, Carmen, Kenneth Rogoff, and Miguel Savastano. 2014. “Addicted to Dollars.” Annals of Economics and Finance 15 (1): 1-50. Read online
Dvir, Eyal, and Kenneth Rogoff. 2014. “Demand Effects and Speculation in Oil Markets: Theory and Evidence.” Journal of International Money and Finance 42 (April): 113-128. JIMF
Data and Programs.
Reinhart, Carmen M, and Kenneth S Rogoff. 2014. “Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten.” Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, edited by S. Claessens, M.A. Kose, L. Laeven, and F. Valencia. Presented September 14, 2012, at IMF conference on financial crises, Washington, DC. IMF Abstract

Even after one of the most severe multi-year crisis on record in the advanced economies, the received wisdom in policy circles clings to the notion that high-income countries are completely different from their emerging market counterparts. The current phase of the official policy approach is predicated on the assumption that debt sustainability can be achieved through a mix of austerity, forbearance and growth. The claim is that advanced countries do not need to resort to the standard toolkit of emerging markets, including debt restructurings and conversions, higher inflation, capital controls and other forms of financial repression. As we document, this claim is at odds with the historical track record of most advanced economies, where debt restructuring or conversions, financial repression, and a tolerance for higher inflation or a combination of these were an integral part of the resolution of significant past debt overhangs.