@article {232731,
	title = {Do Political Protests Matter? Evidence from the Tea Party Movement},
	journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	volume = {128},
	number = {4},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {1633-1685},
	abstract = {Can protests cause political change, or are they merely symptoms of underlying shifts in policy\&nbsp;preferences? We address this question by studying the Tea Party movement in the United\&nbsp;States, which rose to prominence through coordinated rallies across the country on Tax Day,\&nbsp;April 15, 2009. We exploit variation in rainfall on the day of these rallies as an exogenous\&nbsp;source of variation in attendance. We show that good weather at this initial, coordinating event\&nbsp;had significant consequences for the subsequent local strength of the movement, increased\&nbsp;public support for Tea Party positions, and led to more Republican votes in the 2010 midterm\&nbsp;elections. Policymaking was also affected, as incumbents responded to large protests in their\&nbsp;district by voting more conservatively in Congress. Our estimates suggest significant multiplier\&nbsp;effects: an additional protester increased the number of Republican votes by a factor well above\&nbsp;one. Together our results show that protests can build political movements that ultimately affect\&nbsp;policymaking, and that they do so by influencing political views rather than solely through the\&nbsp;revelation of existing political preferences.},
	author = {Daniel Shoag}
}
