@inbook {33946, title = {A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience}, booktitle = {Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting}, year = {1993}, pages = {95 - 156}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, organization = {University of Chicago Press}, author = {James Stock and Mark Watson}, editor = {James Stock and Mark Watson} }