Publications & Working Papers

Stock JH. Addendum to Comments by James Stock on the Proposed Denial of Petitions for Rulemaking to Change the RFS Point of Obligation. 2017. Comments
Stock JH, Watson MW. Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2017;31 (2) :59-86. PDF
Fernald JG, Hall RE, Stock JH, Watson MW. The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. 2017;1 :1-89.Abstract

U.S. output expanded only slowly after the recession trough in 2009 even though
the unemployment rate has essentially returned to a pre-crisis, normal level. We use a growthaccounting decomposition to explore explanations for the output shortfall, giving full treatment to cyclical effects that, given the depth of the recession, should have implied unusually fast growth. We find that the growth shortfall has almost entirely reflected two factors: the slow growth of total factor productivity and the decline in labor force participation. Both factors reflect powerful adverse forces largely unrelated to the financial crisis and recession. These forces were in play before the recession.

Stock JH. Proposed Denial of Petitions for Rulemaking to Change the RFS Point of Obligation: Docket ID No. EPA-OAR–2016–0544. 2017. Comments
Stock JH, Pouliot S, Smith A. RIN Pass-Through at Gasoline Terminals. 2017. PDF
Knittel CR, BS M, JH S. The Pass-Through of RIN Prices to Wholesale and Retail Fuels under the Renewable Fuel Standard. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists. 2017;4 (4) :1081-1119. PDF Replication Files
Coglianese J, Davis LW, Kilian L, Stock JH. Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 2017;32 (1) :1-15. PDF
Metcalf GE, Stock J. Integrated Assessment Models and the Social Cost of Carbon: A Review and Assessment of U.S. Experience. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy . 2017;11 (1) :80-99. PDF
Gillingham KT, Stock JH. Federal Minerals Leasing Reform and Climate Policy. The Hamilton Project. 2016. Publisher's VersionAbstract


Through its minerals leasing program, the U.S. government plays a large role in the extraction of oil, natural gas, and coal. This footprint is the largest for coal: 41 percent of U.S. coal is mined under federal leases, and burning this coal accounts for 13 percent of U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Currently, producers and consumers of this coal do not bear the full social costs associated with its use. At the same time, the threat of climate change has led the international community, including the United States, to pledge significant reductions in CO2 emissions. Over the past two decades Democratic and Republican administrations have taken steps to reduce U.S. CO2 emissions by reducing use of fossil fuels. Despite growing public attention to the climate consequences of fossil fuel extraction, U.S. climate policy so far has not extended to the government’s role as a major source of fossil fuels. We propose to incorporate climate considerations into federal coal leasing by placing a royalty adder on federal coal that is linked to the climate damages from its combustion. The magnitude of the royalty adder should be chosen to recognize both the substitution of nonfederal for federal coal, and the interaction of the royalty adder with other climate policies. A royalty adder set to 20 percent of the social cost of carbon would reduce total power sector emissions, raise the price of federal coal to align with coal mined on private land, increase coal mining employment in Appalachia and the Midwest, and provide additional government revenues to help coal communities. This proposal strikes a middle path between calling for a stop to all federal fossil fuel leasing on the one hand, and relying entirely on imperfect downstream regulation on the other.


Gillingham K, Bushnell J, Fowlie M, Greenstone M, Kolstad C, Krupnick A, Morris A, Schmalensee R, Stock JH. Reforming the U.S. Coal Leasing Program. Science. 2016;354 (6316) :1096-1098. Publisher's Version
Stock JH, Watson MW. Factor Models and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics. 2016. PDF
Stock JH. Discussion of "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects" by Stephanie Aaronson et al. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. 2014 :261-271. labor_force_participation_discussion.pdf
Mavroeidis S, Plagborg-Moller M, Stock JH. Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Journal of Economics Literature. 2014;52 (1) :124-188. empirical_evidence_on_inflation.pdf
Stock JH, Watson MW. Estimating Turning Points Using Large Data Sets. Journal of Econometrics. 2014;178 :368-381. estimating_turning_points.pdf
Stock JH. Discussion of "Unseasonal Seasonals?" by Jonathan Wright. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. 2013 :111-119. unseasonal_seasonals_discussion.pdf
Kaufmann R, Kauppi H, Mann M, Stock JH. Does Temperature Contain a Stochastic Trend: Linking Statistical Results to Physical Mechanisms. Climatic Change. 2013;118 (3-4) :729-743. PDF
Bates B, Plagborg-Moller M, Stock JH, Watson MW. Consistent Factor Estimation in Dynamic Factor Models with Structural Instability. Journal of Econometrics. 2013;177 :289-304. PDF
Stock J, Watson M. Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics. 2012;30 (4) :481-493. PDF