Nickerson, D. W., & Rogers, T. (2020). Campaigns influence election outcomes less than you think, 4 Sept 2020, Vol 369, 1181. Science , 369, 1181-1182. Publisher's Version
Kim, T., John, L. K., Rogers, T., & Norton, M. I. (2019). Procedural Justice and the Risks of Consumer Voting. Management Science , 65 (11), 5234-5251. Procedural Justice and the Risks of Consumer Voting
Dorison, C., Minson, J., & Rogers, T. (2019). A pleasant surprise in partisan politics: Avoidance of opposing views is partly driven by an affective forecasting error. Cognition , 188 (July), 98-107.Abstract

People preferentially consume information that aligns with their prior beliefs, contributing to polarization and undermining democracy. Five studies (collective N=2455) demonstrate that such “selective exposure” partly stems from faulty affective forecasts. Specifically, political partisans systematically overestimate the strength of negative affect that results from exposure to opposing views. In turn, these incorrect forecasts drive information consumption choices. Clinton voters overestimated the negative affect they would experience from watching President Trump’s Inaugural Address (Study 1) and from reading statements written by Trump voters (Study 2). Democrats and Republicans overestimated the negative affect they would experience from listening to speeches by opposing-party senators (Study 3). People’s tendency to underestimate the extent to which they agree with opponents’ views drove the affective forecasting error. Finally, correcting biased affective forecasts reduced selective exposure by 24–34% (Studies 4 and 5).

Dorison, C. A., Minson, J. A., & Rogers, T. (2019). Selective exposure partly relies on faulty affective forecasts. Cognition , 188 (July 2019), 98-107. Selective Exposure.pdf
Tannenbaum, D., Fox, C. R., & Rogers, T. (2017). On the misplaced politics of behavioural policy interventions. Nature Human Behaviour , 1 (10 July 2017), 1-7. tannenbaum_fox_rogers.2017.pdf
Rogers, T., Green, D. P., Ternovski, J., & Young, C. F. (2017). Social pressure and voting: A field experiment conducted in a high-salience election. Electoral Studies , 46 (2017), 87-100. rogers_et_al._social_pressure_and_voting.pdf
Bailey, M. A., Hopkins, D. J., & Rogers, T. (2016). Unresponsive and Unpersuaded: The Unintended Consequences of a Voter Persuasion Effort. Political Behavior. bailey_hopkins_rogers_unresponsive_and_unpersuaded.pdf
Rogers, T., & Frey, E. (2016). Changing Behavior Beyond the Here and Now. In Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making (First Edition. pp. 726-748). changing_behavior.pdf changing_behavior_beyond_the_here_and_now_scanned_copy.pdf
Pierce, L., Rogers, T., & Snyder, J. A. (2015). Losing Hurts: The Happiness Impact of Partisan Electoral Loss. Journal of Experimental Political Science , FirstView Article (12 October 2015), 1-16. empirical_published.pierce_rogers_snyder.2015.pdf
Nickerson, D., & Rogers, T. (2014). Political Campaigns and Big Data. Journal of Economic Perspectives , 28 (2), 51-74. nickerson_and_rogers.2014.pdf
Allcott, H., & Rogers, T. (2014). The Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Behavioral Interventions: Experimental Evidence from Energy Conservation. American Economic Review. allcott_rogers.aer_.2014.pdf
Fernbach, P. M., Rogers, T., Fox, C. R., & Sloman, S. A. (2013). Political Extremism is Supported by an Illusion of Understanding. Psychological Science , 24 (6), 939-946. political_extremism.pdf
Rogers, T., & Aida, M. (2013). Vote Self-Prediction Hardly Predicts Who Will Vote, And Is (Misleadingly) Unbiased. American Politics Research , 42 (3), 503-528. vote_self_prediction.pdf
Rogers, T., Gerber, A. S., & Fox, C. R. (2012). Rethinking Why People Vote: Voting as Dynamic Social Expression. In Behavioral Foundations of Policy. rethinking_why_people_vote_2012.pdf
Malhotra, N., Michelson, M., Rogers, T., & Valenzuela, A. (2011). Text Messages as Mobilization Tools: The Conditional Effect of Habitual Voting and Election Salience. American Politics Research , 39 (4), 664-681. text_messages.pdf
Bryan, C., Walton, G., Rogers, T., & Dweck, C. (2011). Motivating voter turnout by invoking the self. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , 108 (31), 12653-12656.Abstract


Ghitza, Y., & Rogers, T. (2009). Data-Driven Politics. In N. Anstead & W. Straw (Ed.), The Change We Need: What Britain Can Learn from Obama's Victory . London: Fabian Society.
Gerber, A. S., & Rogers, T. (2009). Descriptive Social Norms and Motivation to Vote: Everybody's Voting and so Should You. The Journal of Politics , 71 (1), 178-191. Descriptive Social Norms and Motivation to Vote: Everybody's Voting and so Should You