Working Paper
Frick, Mira, Ryota Iijima, and Tomasz Strzalecki. Working Paper. “Dynamic Random Utility”.Abstract

Under dynamic random utility, an agent (or population of agents) solves a dynamic decision problem subject to evolving private information. We analyze the fully general and non-parametric model, axiomatically characterizing the implied dynamic stochastic choice behavior. A key new feature relative to static or i.i.d. versions of the model is that when private information displays serial correlation, choices appear history dependent: different sequences of past choices reflect different private information of the agent, and hence typically lead to different distributions of current choices. Our axiomatization imposes discipline on the form of history dependence that can arise under arbitrary serial correlation. Dynamic stochastic choice data lets us distinguish central models that coincide in static domains, in particular private information in the form of utility shocks vs. learning, and to study inherently dynamic phenomena such as choice persistence. We relate our model to specifications of utility shocks widely used in empirical work, highlighting new modeling tradeoffs in the dynamic discrete choice literature. Finally, we extend our characterization to allow past consumption to directly affect the agent’s utility process, accommodating models of habit formation and experimentation.

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Fudenberg, Drew, Philipp Strack, and Tomasz Strzalecki. Working Paper. “Speed, Accuracy, and the Optimal Timing of Choices”.Abstract

We model the joint distribution of choice probabilities and decision times in binary decisions as the solution to a problem of optimal sequential sampling, where the agent is uncertain of the utility of each action and pays a constant cost per unit time for gathering information. We show that choices are more likely to be correct when the agent chooses to decide quickly provided that the agent’s prior beliefs are correct. This better matches the observed correlation between decision time and choice probability than does the classical drift-diffusion model, where the agent knows the utility difference between the choices.

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Gul, Faruk, Wolfgang Pesendorfer, and Tomasz Strzalecki. 2017. “Coarse Competitive Equilibrium and Extreme Prices.” American Economic Review 107: 109-137.Abstract

We introduce a notion of coarse competitive equilibrium (CCE), to study agents' inability to tailor their consumption to the state of the economy. Our notion is motivated by limited cognitive ability (in particular attention, memory, and complexity) and it maintains the complete market structure of competitive equilibrium. Compared to standard competitive equilibrium, our concept yields riskier allocations and more extreme prices. We provide a tractable model that is suitable for general equilibrium analysis as well as asset pricing.

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Fudenberg, Drew, Ryota Iijima, and Tomasz Strzalecki. 2015. “Stochastic Choice and Revealed Perturbed Utility.” Econometrica 83 (6): 2371–2409. Article PDF Previous version with additional results
Fudenberg, Drew, and Tomasz Strzalecki. 2015. “Dynamic Logit with Choice Aversion.” Econometrica 83 (2): 651–691. Article PDF
Montiel Olea, J.L., and Tomasz Strzalecki. 2014. “Axiomatization and Measurement of Quasi-hyperbolic Discounting.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 129: 1449-1499. Online Appendix Article PDF
Epstein, Larry, Emmanuel Farhi, and Tomasz Strzalecki. 2014. “How Much Would You Pay to Resolve Long-Run Risk?.” American Economic Review 104: 2680-2697. Article PDF
Strzalecki, Tomasz. 2014. “Depth of Reasoning and Higher Order Beliefs.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 108: 108-122. Publisher's VersionAbstract

As demonstrated by the email game of Rubinstein (1989), the predictions of the standard equilibrium models of game theory are sensitive to assumptions about the fine details of the higher order beliefs. This paper shows that models of bounded depth of reasoning based on level-k thinking or cognitive hierarchy make predictions that are independent of the tail assumptions on the higher order beliefs. In addition to this finding, the tools developed in this paper oer a new direction for the analysis of models of bounded depth of reasoning and their applications to various economic settings. (JEL C72, D03)

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Strzalecki, Tomasz. 2013. “Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Recursive Models of Ambiguity Aversion.” Econometrica 81 (3): 1039-1074.Abstract

Models of ambiguity aversion have recently found many applications in dynamic settings. This paper shows that there is a strong interdependence between ambiguity aversion and the preferences for the timing of the resolution of uncertainty, as dened by the classic work of Kreps and Porteus (1978): the modeling choices that are being made in the domain of ambiguity aversion influence the set of modeling choices available in the domain of timing attitudes. The main result of the paper is that the only model of ambiguity aversion that exhibits indierence to timing is the maxmin expected utility of Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989). This paper also examines the structure of the timing nonindierence implied by the other commonly used models of ambiguity aversion. The interdependence of ambiguity and timing that this paper identies is of interest both conceptually and practically–especially for economists using these models in applications.

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Strzalecki, Tomasz. 2011. “Axiomatic Foundations of Multiplier Preferences.” Econometrica 79: 47-73.Abstract

This paper axiomatizes the robust control criterion of multiplier preferences introduced by Hansen and Sargent (2001). The axiomatization relates multiplier preferences to other classes of preferences studied in decision theory, in particular, the variational preferences recently introduced by Maccheroni, Marinacci, and Rustichini (2006a). This paper also establishes a link between the parameters of the multiplier criterion and the observable behavior of the agent. This link enables measurement of the parameters on the basis of observable choice data and provides a useful tool for applications.

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Strzalecki, Tomasz. 2011. “Probabilistic Sophistication and Variational Preferences.” Journal of Economic Theory 146: 2117–2125. PDFAbstract

This paper shows that in the class of variational preferences the notion of probabilistic sophistication is equivalent to expected utility as long as there exists at least one event such that the independence axiom holds for bets on that event. This extends a result of Marinacci (2002) and provides a novel interpretation of his result.

Strzalecki, Tomasz, and Jan Werner. 2011. “Efficient Allocations under Ambiguity.” Journal of Economic Theory 146: 1173-1194. PDFAbstract

An important implication of the expected utility model under risk aversion is that if agents have the same probability belief, then the efficient allocations under uncertainty are comonotone with the aggregate endowment, and if their beliefs are concordant, then the efficient allocations are measurable with respect to the aggregate endowment. We study these two properties of efficient allocations for models of preferences that exhibit ambiguity aversion using the concept of conditional belief, which we introduce in this paper. We provide characterizations of such conditional beliefs for the standard models of preferences used in applications. ∗

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Grant, Simon, Ben Polak, and Tomasz Strzalecki. 2009. “Second-Order Expected Utility.” SSRN.Abstract

We present two axiomatizations of the Second-Order Expected Utility model in the context of the standard models of choice under uncertainty.

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Rigotti, Luca, Chris Shannon, and Tomasz Strzalecki. 2008. “Subjective Beliefs and Ex Ante Trade.” Econometrica 76: 1176–1190 .Abstract

We study a definition of subjective beliefs applicable to preferences that allow for the perception of ambiguity, and provide a characterization of such beliefs in terms of market behavior. Using this definition, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the efficiency of ex ante trade and show that these conditions follow from the fundamental welfare theorems. When aggregate uncertainty is absent, our results show that full insurance is efficient if and only if agents share some common subjective beliefs. Our results hold for a general class of convex preferences, which contains many functional forms used in applications involving ambiguity and ambiguity aversion. We show how our results can be articulated in the language of these functional forms, confirming results existing in the literature, generating new results, and providing a useful tool for applications.

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Platteau, Jean-Philippe, and Tomasz Strzalecki. 2004. “Collective Action, Heterogeneous Loyalties, and Path Dependence: Micro-Evidence from Senegal.” Journal of African Economies , no. 13: 417 - 445.Abstract

In Senegal we encountered a situation in which a minority group of migrant fishermen had completely different sets of expectations regarding a collective action depending on the location where they operated. In one village expectations were pessimistic, while in the other village they were optimistic. Understanding this contrast and its implications provides the main justification for the paper. To be able to account for the contrast between the two areas, pessimistic expectations in the first area have to be traced back to a preceding conflict that could never be settled satisfactorily. A perverse path -dependent process had thus been set in motion that could not be changed by a simple act of will of a determined leadership. To demonstrate the links between expectations and actions that fit with the story told, we propose a simple model of collective action with asymmetric information.

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