Su Y, Xiao X. Counterfactual Analysis: Deregulation and Changes of Aviation Network in China. The Study of Finance and Economics. 2006;3 :103-13.Abstract

Abstract: The rule of aviation industry was discussed through analyzing the evolvement of US aviation network, and the tendency of China aviation industry was predicted. First, history of aviation deregulation in US was reviewed, then two theory models were introduced: one was a simple model about air lines prevalence ratio of in the aviation network, the other was about the cost comparison between the fully connected (FC) network and the hub-spoke (HS) network. In the further analysis, the applicability of FC network and HS network was illustrated by using a simulated sample to compare the network externality and the transportation cost between FC network and HS network, then the present situation of FC network and HS network in China was explored according to the market research of China regional aviation after that, counterfactual method is discussed. At last, relative policy suggestions are proposed.