Publications

2017
Babbitt, Eileen, Arvid Bell, Alain Lempereur, Brian Mandell, and Dana Wolf. Negotiating Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa: A System Analysis after the Arab Spring, the Iran Nuclear Deal, and the Rise of ISIS. The MENA Negotiation Report. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Kennedy School Negotiation Project, 2017. Project WebsiteAbstract
With the Arab Spring, the Iran nuclear deal, and the rise of ISIS, the reality in the Middle East and North Africa has changed fundamentally over the past few years. This report aims to make contributions to the understanding of the interconnected conflicts in the MENA region. It assesses the shifted network of relationships and alliances in the Middle East and North Africa and helps evaluate the effectiveness of future negotiation strategies to be employed by key actors with influence in the region.
mena2017.pdf
Bell, Arvid. “Afghanistan und Irak: Internationalisierte Bürgerkriege und regionale Allianzen.” In "America first": Die Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik der USA unter Präsident Trump, 1:39-40. 2017th ed. Frankfurt, Germany: Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, 2017. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Im HSFK Report Nr. 1/2017 "America first: Die Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik der USA unter Präsident Trump", herausgegeben von Caroline Fehl und Marco Fey, gehen Expertinnen und Experten der HSFK der Frage nach, wie die amerikanische Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik unter Präsident Trump aussehen könnte. Wird sie von Kontinuität geprägt sein? Oder wird es gravierende Brüche geben? Wie werden sich die diplomatischen Beziehungen zu einzelnen Staaten ändern? Der Report wirft darüber hinaus einen Blick auf Themen wie Terrorismus, Rüstungskontrolle und Demokratie, die aus Sicht der Friedens- und Konfliktforschung besonders relevant sind.
2016
Bell, Arvid. “The Transition Exercise. A Dynamic Negotiation Training on Conflict, Crisis, and Complexity.” Program on Negotiation at Harvard Law School, 2016. Project Website
2015
Bell, Arvid. The Famous Guest: A Case on Parasitic Integration and Value Creation. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Kennedy School Negotiation Project, 2015.Abstract

Negotiation Case Exercise

Bell, Arvid. JetFair: A Case on Pareto Optimality in Scoreable Multi-Party Negotiations. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Kennedy School Negotiation Project, 2015.Abstract

Negotiation Case Exercise

Bell, Arvid. Afghanistan and Central Asia in 2015. An Overview of Actors, Interests, and Relationships. PRIF Reports. 132nd ed. Frankfurt, Germany: Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, 2015. Publisher's VersionAbstract

This report assesses the interests of the most relevant state and non-state actors in Afghanistan and Central Asia in the aftermath of the 2014 Afghan presidential election. It is guided by the premise that the armed conflict in Afghanistan should be understood as being heavily intertwined with regional politics. Its purpose is to serve as an overview of the negotiation environment in Afghanistan and Central Asia. It identifies actors, interests, and relationships that are helpful to take into consideration when sequencing and orchestrating a peace process that could de-escalate the war in Afghanistan and help build a more stable and cooperative region. The majority of the PRIF Report focuses on relevant actors and their network of relationships, and the conclusion details three future scenarios and a set of recommendations that could facilitate a coordinated negotiation process.

PRIF-Report_AfghanistanCentralAsia.pdf
2014
Bell, Arvid. “A Network in Transition: Actors, Interests, and Alliances in the Afghanistan Conflict as of Early 2014,” 2014. Publisher's VersionAbstract

This paper maps out the negotiation environment of the Afghanistan conflict. So far, all attempts to end the violence between the Afghan government, insurgency, and US and NATO through negotiations have failed. Key obstacles to negotiations are the complexity of the conflict and the variety of state and non-state actors that are directly or indirectly involved. This paper explores the interests and relationships of these actors and highlights the most important alliances and connections. Finally, these connections are visualized in a network diagram.

PRIF_WP_20.pdf
Bell, Arvid. “The Roadblock of Contested Recognition: Identity-Based Justice Claims as an Obstacle to Peace Negotiations in Afghanistan.” International Negotiation 19, no. 3 (2014): 518-542. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Resistance to negotiation and the continuation of violence dictate the course of events in the Afghanistan conflict. However, several studies have thoroughly explored the interests of the main parties to the conflict and a settlement that respects their key demands is possible. The current military situation resembles a “hurting stalemate,” which according to rationalist assumptions should compel the parties to move toward negotiations. This article argues that the main obstacle to negotiation is an underlying and unaddressed conflict of recognition between the United States, the Afghan government, and the Taliban. While each party believes it is driven by justice claims, they perceive their opponents to be driven by a hostile strategy informed by incompatible interests. Relying on the Cultural Theory of International Relations, this article explores the parties’ motives in the conflict, focusing on the need to strive for esteem and honor. It suggests that the reciprocal acknowledgement of legitimate identity-related justice claims could remove a key obstacle to formal negotiation.

Bell, Arvid, and Cornelius Friesendorf. “Ziel verfehlt. Die Mitverantwortung der NATO für zivile Opfer in Afghanistan.” HSFK-Standpunkte, 2014, 2014, 6, 1-12. Publisher's Version
Bell, Arvid, Matthias Dembinski, Thorsten Gromes, and Berthold Meyer. “Früher, entschiedener und substanzieller? Engagiertes außenpolitisches Handeln und militärische Zurückhaltung sind kein Widerspruch.” HSFK-Standpunkte, 2014, 2014, 1, 1-8. Publisher's Version
2013
Bell, Arvid. Connoro Pretorian: Negotiating joint-ventures and building trust in emerging markets. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Kennedy School Negotiation Project, 2013.Abstract

Negotiation Case Exercise

Bell, Arvid. Verhandeln statt Bürgerkrieg: Ein Plädoyer für Waffenstillstand und offizielle Friedensgespräche in Afghanistan. HSFK Reports. 2013th ed. Frankfurt, Germany: Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, 2013. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Afghanistan befindet sich seit über 30 Jahren im Bürgerkrieg. Mit Blick auf den für 2014 geplanten Abzug der UN-mandatierten und NATO-geführten ISAF-Truppen analysiert der vorliegende Report die verschiedenen Konflikte, die der derzeitigen Phase des Krieges zugrunde liegen. Er argumentiert, dass die komplexe Konfliktsituation durch die Strategie der „Sicherheitsübergabe“ nicht bearbeitet wird und plädiert dafür, den afghanischen Bürgerkrieg durch offizielle Friedensverhandlungen zwischen den zentralen Konfliktparteien zu deeskalieren. Hierzu werden konkrete Vorschläge gemacht, wie die USA, die NATO und Deutschland einen formalisierten und inklusiven Friedensprozess in Afghanistan unterstützen können.
hsfk-report-0413.pdf
2010
Bell, Arvid. “Acht Jahre nach der Invasion. Eine Zwischenbilanz..” In Friedensgutachten 2010, 24:104-117. 2010th ed. Münster: LIT-Verlag, 2010. Publisher's VersionAbstract

The Peace Report (Friedensgutachten) is the joint yearbook of the institutes of peace and conflict research in Germany. It has been published annually since 1987. Researchers from various disciplines examine ongoing international conflicts from the perspective of peace strategy. Their analyses are the basis for the editors’ statement which summarizes and assesses the results and formulates recommendations for peace and security policies in Germany and Europe.