Publications

In Press
Murphy JM, Gilman SE, Colman I. “Dimensions and categories in psychiatric epidemiology.” International Journal of Epidemiology, In Press.
Nock, MK, RJ Ursano, SG Heeringa, MB Stein, S Jain, R Raman, X Sun, et al.Mental disorders, comorbidity, and pre-enlistment suicidal behavior among new soldiers in the US Army: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).” Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior (In Press).
2015
Caqueo-Urízar, Alejandra, Joshua Breslau, and Stephen E Gilman. “Beliefs about the causes of schizophrenia among Aymara and non-Aymara patients and their primary caregivers in the Central-Southern Andes.Int J Soc Psychiatry 61, no. 1 (2015): 82-91.Abstract

AIM: The aim of this study is to investigate differences in the beliefs about the causes of schizophrenia between Aymara and non-Aymara patients with schizophrenia and their primary caregivers. Ethnic background plays an important role in the formation of beliefs regarding the causes of schizophrenia, and there have been no prior studies on such beliefs among the Aymara, an indigenous community with a population of about 2 million people living in the Andes. We focused on three systems of beliefs distinguished in the literature: biological, psychosocial and magical-religious. METHODS: The sample comprised 253 patients (n = 117 Aymara, and n = 136 non-Aymara) of public mental health centers in Chile (33.6%), Peru (33.6%) and Bolivia (32.8%) with a diagnosis of schizophrenia, and each patient's primary caregiver. We administered to patients and caregivers a questionnaire with scales assessing the perceived causes of schizophrenia. Linear regression models were fitted to compare differences in the levels of causal beliefs between Aymara and non-Aymara patients and caregivers, and to identify socio-demographic and clinical predictors of different types of beliefs about the causes of schizophrenia. RESULTS: Adjusted for socio-demographic and clinical covariates, levels of psychosocial beliefs were significantly higher for Aymara caregivers (0.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.05, 0.62) than non-Aymara caregivers. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to expectations, beliefs about the causes of schizophrenia among Aymara are not more magical-religious than those of their non-Aymara counterparts. It may be necessary for mental health staff members to evaluate beliefs about the disorder, especially in ethnic minorities, before applying a standard model of treatment.

Slopen, Natalie, Eric B Loucks, Allison A Appleton, Ichiro Kawachi, Laura D Kubzansky, Amy L Non, Stephen Buka, and Stephen E Gilman. “Early origins of inflammation: An examination of prenatal and childhood social adversity in a prospective cohort study.Psychoneuroendocrinology 51 (2015): 403-13.Abstract

BACKGROUND: Children exposed to social adversity carry a greater risk of poor physical and mental health into adulthood. This increased risk is thought to be due, in part, to inflammatory processes associated with early adversity that contribute to the etiology of many adult illnesses. The current study asks whether aspects of the prenatal social environment are associated with levels of inflammation in adulthood, and whether prenatal and childhood adversity both contribute to adult inflammation. METHODS: We examined associations of prenatal and childhood adversity assessed through direct interviews of participants in the Collaborative Perinatal Project between 1959 and 1974 with blood levels of C-reactive protein in 355 offspring interviewed in adulthood (mean age=42.2 years). Linear and quantile regression models were used to estimate the effects of prenatal adversity and childhood adversity on adult inflammation, adjusting for age, sex, and race and other potential confounders. RESULTS: In separate linear regression models, high levels of prenatal and childhood adversity were associated with higher CRP in adulthood. When prenatal and childhood adversity were analyzed together, our results support the presence of an effect of prenatal adversity on (log) CRP level in adulthood (β=0.73, 95% CI: 0.26, 1.20) that is independent of childhood adversity and potential confounding factors including maternal health conditions reported during pregnancy. Supplemental analyses revealed similar findings using quantile regression models and logistic regression models that used a clinically-relevant CRP threshold (>3mg/L). In a fully-adjusted model that included childhood adversity, high prenatal adversity was associated with a 3-fold elevated odds (95% CI: 1.15, 8.02) of having a CRP level in adulthood that indicates high risk of cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: Social adversity during the prenatal period is a risk factor for elevated inflammation in adulthood independent of adversities during childhood. This evidence is consistent with studies demonstrating that adverse exposures in the maternal environment during gestation have lasting effects on development of the immune system. If these results reflect causal associations, they suggest that interventions to improve the social and environmental conditions of pregnancy would promote health over the life course. It remains necessary to identify the mechanisms that link maternal conditions during pregnancy to the development of fetal immune and other systems involved in adaptation to environmental stressors.

Rosellini, Anthony J, Steven G Heeringa, Murray B Stein, Robert J Ursano, Wai Tat Chiu, Lisa J Colpe, Carol S Fullerton, et al.Lifetime prevalence of dsm-iv mental disorders among new soldiers in the u.s. Army: results from the army study to assess risk and resilience in servicemembers (army starrs).Depress Anxiety 32, no. 1 (2015): 13-24.Abstract

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of 30-day mental disorders with retrospectively reported early onsets is significantly higher in the U.S. Army than among socio-demographically matched civilians. This difference could reflect high prevalence of preenlistment disorders and/or high persistence of these disorders in the context of the stresses associated with military service. These alternatives can to some extent be distinguished by estimating lifetime disorder prevalence among new Army recruits. METHODS: The New Soldier Study (NSS) in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) used fully structured measures to estimate lifetime prevalence of 10 DSM-IV disorders in new soldiers reporting for Basic Combat Training in 2011-2012 (n = 38,507). Prevalence was compared to estimates from a matched civilian sample. Multivariate regression models examined socio-demographic correlates of disorder prevalence and persistence among new soldiers. RESULTS: Lifetime prevalence of having at least one internalizing, externalizing, or either type of disorder did not differ significantly between new soldiers and civilians, although three specific disorders (generalized anxiety, posttraumatic stress, and conduct disorders) and multimorbidity were significantly more common among new soldiers than civilians. Although several socio-demographic characteristics were significantly associated with disorder prevalence and persistence, these associations were uniformly weak. CONCLUSIONS: New soldiers differ somewhat, but not consistently, from civilians in lifetime preenlistment mental disorders. This suggests that prior findings of higher prevalence of current disorders with preenlistment onsets among soldiers than civilians are likely due primarily to a more persistent course of early-onset disorders in the context of the special stresses experienced by Army personnel.

Santavirta, Torsten, Nina Santavirta, Theresa S Betancourt, and Stephen E Gilman. “Long term mental health outcomes of Finnish children evacuated to Swedish families during the second world war and their non-evacuated siblings: cohort study.BMJ 350 (2015): g7753.Abstract

OBJECTIVES: To compare the risks of admission to hospital for any type of psychiatric disorder and for four specific psychiatric disorders among adults who as children were evacuated to Swedish foster families during the second world war and their non-evacuated siblings, and to evaluate whether these risks differ between the sexes. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: National child evacuation scheme in Finland during the second world war. PARTICIPANTS: Children born in Finland between 1933 and 1944 who were later included in a 10% sample of the 1950 Finnish census ascertained in 1997 (n=45 463; women: n=22 021; men: n=23 442). Evacuees in the sample were identified from war time government records. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Adults admitted to hospital for psychiatric disorders recorded between 1971 and 2011 in the Finnish hospital discharge register. METHODS: We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the association between evacuation to temporary foster care in Sweden during the second world war and admission to hospital for a psychiatric disorder between ages 38 and 78 years. Fixed effects methods were employed to control for all unobserved social and genetic characteristics shared among siblings. RESULTS: Among men and women combined, the risk of admission to hospital for a psychiatric disorder did not differ between Finnish adults evacuated to Swedish foster families and their non-evacuated siblings (hazard ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 1.26). Evidence suggested a lower risk of admission for any mental disorder (0.67, 0.44 to 1.03) among evacuated men, whereas for women there was no association between evacuation and the overall risk of admission for a psychiatric disorder (1.21, 0.80 to 1.83). When admissions for individual psychiatric disorders were analyzed, evacuated girls were significantly more likely than their non-evacuated sisters to be admitted to hospital for a mood disorder as an adult (2.19, 1.10 to 4.33). CONCLUSIONS: The Finnish evacuation policy was not associated with an increased overall risk of admission to hospital for a psychiatric disorder in adulthood among former evacuees. In fact, evacuation was associated with a marginally reduced risk of admission for any psychiatric disorder among men. Among women who had been evacuated, however, the risk of being admitted to hospital for a mood disorder was increased.

Kessler, Ronald C, Christopher H Warner, Christopher Ivany, Maria V Petukhova, Sherri Rose, Evelyn J Bromet, Millard Brown, et al.Predicting Suicides After Psychiatric Hospitalization in US Army Soldiers: The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).JAMA Psychiatry 72, no. 1 (2015): 49-57.Abstract

IMPORTANCE: The US Army experienced a sharp increase in soldier suicides beginning in 2004. Administrative data reveal that among those at highest risk are soldiers in the 12 months after inpatient treatment of a psychiatric disorder. OBJECTIVE: To develop an actuarial risk algorithm predicting suicide in the 12 months after US Army soldier inpatient treatment of a psychiatric disorder to target expanded posthospitalization care. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: There were 53 769 hospitalizations of active duty soldiers from January 1, 2004, through December 31, 2009, with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification psychiatric admission diagnoses. Administrative data available before hospital discharge abstracted from a wide range of data systems (sociodemographic, US Army career, criminal justice, and medical or pharmacy) were used to predict suicides in the subsequent 12 months using machine learning methods (regression trees and penalized regressions) designed to evaluate cross-validated linear, nonlinear, and interactive predictive associations. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Suicides of soldiers hospitalized with psychiatric disorders in the 12 months after hospital discharge. RESULTS: Sixty-eight soldiers died by suicide within 12 months of hospital discharge (12.0% of all US Army suicides), equivalent to 263.9 suicides per 100 000 person-years compared with 18.5 suicides per 100 000 person-years in the total US Army. The strongest predictors included sociodemographics (male sex [odds ratio (OR), 7.9; 95% CI, 1.9-32.6] and late age of enlistment [OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.0-3.5]), criminal offenses (verbal violence [OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4.0] and weapons possession [OR, 5.6; 95% CI, 1.7-18.3]), prior suicidality [OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.7-4.9], aspects of prior psychiatric inpatient and outpatient treatment (eg, number of antidepressant prescriptions filled in the past 12 months [OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7]), and disorders diagnosed during the focal hospitalizations (eg, nonaffective psychosis [OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.2-7.0]). A total of 52.9% of posthospitalization suicides occurred after the 5% of hospitalizations with highest predicted suicide risk (3824.1 suicides per 100 000 person-years). These highest-risk hospitalizations also accounted for significantly elevated proportions of several other adverse posthospitalization outcomes (unintentional injury deaths, suicide attempts, and subsequent hospitalizations). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The high concentration of risk of suicide and other adverse outcomes might justify targeting expanded posthospitalization interventions to soldiers classified as having highest posthospitalization suicide risk, although final determination requires careful consideration of intervention costs, comparative effectiveness, and possible adverse effects.

Ursano, Robert J, Steven G Heeringa, Murray B Stein, Sonia Jain, Rema Raman, Xiaoying Sun, Wai Tat Chiu, et al.Prevalence and correlates of suicidal behavior among new soldiers in the u.s. Army: results from the army study to assess risk and resilience in servicemembers (army starrs).Depress Anxiety 32, no. 1 (2015): 3-12.Abstract

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of suicide among U.S. Army soldiers has risen dramatically in recent years. Prior studies suggest that most soldiers with suicidal behaviors (i.e., ideation, plans, and attempts) had first onsets prior to enlistment. However, those data are based on retrospective self-reports of soldiers later in their Army careers. Unbiased examination of this issue requires investigation of suicidality among new soldiers. METHOD: The New Soldier Study (NSS) of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) used fully structured self-administered measures to estimate preenlistment histories of suicide ideation, plans, and attempts among new soldiers reporting for Basic Combat Training in 2011-2012. Survival models examined sociodemographic correlates of each suicidal outcome. RESULTS: Lifetime prevalence estimates of preenlistment suicide ideation, plans, and attempts were 14.1, 2.3, and 1.9%, respectively. Most reported onsets of suicide plans and attempts (73.3-81.5%) occurred within the first year after onset of ideation. Odds of these lifetime suicidal behaviors among new soldiers were positively, but weakly associated with being female, unmarried, religion other than Protestant or Catholic, and a race/ethnicity other than non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, or Hispanic. CONCLUSIONS: Lifetime prevalence estimates of suicidal behaviors among new soldiers are consistent with retrospective reports of preenlistment prevalence obtained from soldiers later in their Army careers. Given that prior suicidal behaviors are among the strongest predictors of later suicides, consideration should be given to developing methods of obtaining valid reports of preenlistment suicidality from new soldiers to facilitate targeting of preventive interventions.

2014
Trinh, Nhi-Ha T, Deborah L Nadler, Vivian Shie, Felipe Fregni, Stephen E Gilman, Colleen M Ryan, and Jeffrey C Schneider. “Psychological Sequelae of the Station Nightclub Fire: Comparing Survivors with and without Physical Injuries Using a Mixed-Methods Analysis.PLoS One 9, no. 12 (2014): e115013.Abstract
BACKGROUND: Surveying survivors from a large fire provides an opportunity to explore the impact of emotional trauma on psychological outcomes. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional survey of survivors of The Station Fire. Primary outcomes were post-traumatic stress (Impact of Event Scale - Revised) and depressive (Beck Depression Inventory) symptoms. Linear regression was used to examine differences in symptom profiles between those with and without physical injuries. The free-response section of the survey was analyzed qualitatively to compare psychological sequelae of survivors with and without physical injuries. RESULTS: 104 participants completed the study survey; 47% experienced a burn injury. There was a 42% to 72% response rate range. The mean age of respondents was 32 years, 62% were male, and 47% experienced a physical injury. No significant relationships were found between physical injury and depressive or post-traumatic stress symptom profiles. In the qualitative analysis, the emotional trauma that survivors experienced was a major, common theme regardless of physical injury. Survivors without physical injuries were more likely to experience survivor guilt, helplessness, self-blame, and bitterness. Despite the post-fire challenges described, most survivors wrote about themes of recovery and renewal. CONCLUSIONS: All survivors of this large fire experienced significant psychological sequelae. These findings reinforce the importance of mental health care for all survivors and suggest a need to understand factors influencing positive outcomes.
Gilman, Stephen E, and Eric B Loucks. “Another casualty of sibling fixed-effects analysis of education and health: an informative null, or null information?Soc Sci Med, 2014, 118, 191-3.
Loucks, Eric B, Stephen E Gilman, Chanelle J Howe, Ichiro Kawachi, Laura D Kubzansky, Rima E Rudd, Laurie T Martin, Arijit Nandi, Aude Wilhelm, and Stephen L Buka. “Education and Coronary Heart Disease Risk: Potential Mechanisms Such as Literacy, Perceived Constraints, and Depressive Symptoms.Health Educ Behav (2014).Abstract

Objective. Education is inversely associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk; however the mechanisms are poorly understood. The study objectives were to evaluate the extent to which rarely measured factors (literacy, time preference, sense of control) and more commonly measured factors (income, depressive symptomatology, body mass index) in the education-CHD literature explain the associations between education and CHD risk. Method. The study sample included 346 participants, aged 38 to 47 years (59.5% women), of the New England Family Study birth cohort. Ten-year CHD risk was calculated using the validated Framingham risk algorithm that utilizes diabetes, smoking, blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, age, and gender. Multivariable regression and mediation analyses were performed. Results. Regression analyses adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, and childhood confounders (e.g., parental socioeconomic status, intelligence) demonstrated that relative to those with greater than or equal to college education, men and women with less than high school had 73.7% (95% confidence interval [CI; 29.5, 133.0]) and 48.2% (95% CI [17.5, 86.8]) higher 10-year CHD risk, respectively. Mediation analyses demonstrated significant indirect effects for reading comprehension in women (7.2%; 95% CI [0.7, 19.4]) and men (7.2%; 95% CI [0.8, 19.1]), and depressive symptoms (11.8%; 95% CI [2.5, 26.6]) and perceived constraint (6.7%, 95% CI [0.7, 19.1]) in women. Conclusions. Evidence suggested that reading comprehension in women and men, and depressive symptoms and perceived constraint in women, may mediate some of the association between education and CHD risk. If these mediated effects are interpreted causally, interventions targeting reading, depressive symptoms, and perceived constraint could reduce educational inequalities in CHD.

Gerbasi, Margaret E, Lauren K Richards, Jennifer J Thomas, Jessica C Agnew-Blais, Heather Thompson-Brenner, Stephen E Gilman, and Anne E Becker. “Globalization and eating disorder risk: Peer influence, perceived social norms, and adolescent disordered eating in Fiji.Int J Eat Disord 47, no. 7 (2014): 727-37.Abstract

OBJECTIVE: The increasing global health burden imposed by eating disorders warrants close examination of social exposures associated with globalization that potentially elevate risk during the critical developmental period of adolescence in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The study aim was to investigate the association of peer influence and perceived social norms with adolescent eating pathology in Fiji, a LMIC undergoing rapid social change. METHOD: We measured peer influence on eating concerns (with the Inventory of Peer Influence on Eating Concerns; IPIEC), perceived peer norms associated with disordered eating and body concerns, perceived community cultural norms, and individual cultural orientations in a representative sample of school-going ethnic Fijian adolescent girls (n = 523). We then developed a multivariable linear regression model to examine their relation to eating pathology (measured by the Eating Disorder Examination-Questionnaire; EDE-Q). RESULTS: We found independent and statistically significant associations between both IPIEC scores and our proxy for perceived social norms specific to disordered eating (both p < .001) and EDE-Q global scores in a fully adjusted linear regression model. DISCUSSION: Study findings support the possibility that peer influence as well as perceived social norms relevant to disordered eating may elevate risk for disordered eating in Fiji, during the critical developmental period of adolescence. Replication and extension of these research findings in other populations undergoing rapid social transition-and where globalization is also influencing local social norms-may enrich etiologic models and inform strategies to mitigate risk. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. (Int J Eat Disord 2014; 47:727-737).

Street, AE, SE Gilman, AJ Rosellini, MB Stein, EJ Bromet, KL Cox, LJ Colpe, et al.Understanding the elevated suicide risk of female soldiers during deployments.Psychol Med (2014): 1-10.Abstract

BACKGROUND: The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) has found that the proportional elevation in the US Army enlisted soldier suicide rate during deployment (compared with the never-deployed or previously deployed) is significantly higher among women than men, raising the possibility of gender differences in the adverse psychological effects of deployment. METHOD: Person-month survival models based on a consolidated administrative database for active duty enlisted Regular Army soldiers in 2004-2009 (n = 975 057) were used to characterize the gender × deployment interaction predicting suicide. Four explanatory hypotheses were explored involving the proportion of females in each soldier's occupation, the proportion of same-gender soldiers in each soldier's unit, whether the soldier reported sexual assault victimization in the previous 12 months, and the soldier's pre-deployment history of treated mental/behavioral disorders. RESULTS: The suicide rate of currently deployed women (14.0/100 000 person-years) was 3.1-3.5 times the rates of other (i.e. never-deployed/previously deployed) women. The suicide rate of currently deployed men (22.6/100 000 person-years) was 0.9-1.2 times the rates of other men. The adjusted (for time trends, sociodemographics, and Army career variables) female:male odds ratio comparing the suicide rates of currently deployed v. other women v. men was 2.8 (95% confidence interval 1.1-6.8), became 2.4 after excluding soldiers with Direct Combat Arms occupations, and remained elevated (in the range 1.9-2.8) after adjusting for the hypothesized explanatory variables. CONCLUSIONS: These results are valuable in excluding otherwise plausible hypotheses for the elevated suicide rate of deployed women and point to the importance of expanding future research on the psychological challenges of deployment for women.

Non, Amy L, Marissa Rewak, Ichiro Kawachi, Stephen E Gilman, Eric B Loucks, Allison A Appleton, Jorge C Román, Stephen L Buka, and Laura D Kubzansky. “Childhood social disadvantage, cardiometabolic risk, and chronic disease in adulthood.Am J Epidemiol 180, no. 3 (2014): 263-71.Abstract

Adverse social environments in early life are hypothesized to become biologically embedded during the first few years of life, with potentially far-reaching implications for health across the life course. Using prospective data from a subset of a US birth cohort, the Collaborative Perinatal Project, started in 1959-1966 (n = 566), we examined associations of social disadvantage assessed in childhood with cardiometabolic function and chronic disease status more than 40 years later (in 2005-2007). Social disadvantage was measured with an index that combined information on adverse socioeconomic and family stability factors experienced between birth and age 7 years. Cardiometabolic risk (CMR) was assessed by combining information from 8 CMR biomarkers; an index of chronic disease status was derived by assessing 8 chronic diseases. Poisson models were used to investigate associations between social disadvantage and CMR or chronic disease scores while adjusting for childhood covariates and potential pathway variables. A high level of social disadvantage was significantly associated with both higher CMR (incident rate ratio = 1.69, 95% confidence interval: 1.19, 2.39) and with a higher number of chronic diseases (incident rate ratio = 1.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.00, 1.92) in minimally adjusted models. Associations with CMR persisted even after accounting for childhood and adult covariates.

Gadermann, Anne M, Steven G Heeringa, Murray B Stein, Robert J Ursano, Lisa J Colpe, Carol S Fullerton, Stephen E Gilman, et al.Classifying u.s. Army military occupational specialties using the occupational information network.Mil Med 179, no. 7 (2014): 752-61.Abstract

OBJECTIVES: To derive job condition scales for future studies of the effects of job conditions on soldier health and job functioning across Army Military Occupation Specialties (MOSs) and Areas of Concentration (AOCs) using Department of Labor (DoL) Occupational Information Network (O*NET) ratings. METHODS: A consolidated administrative dataset was created for the "Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers" (Army STARRS) containing all soldiers on active duty between 2004 and 2009. A crosswalk between civilian occupations and MOS/AOCs (created by DoL and the Defense Manpower Data Center) was augmented to assign scores on all 246 O*NET dimensions to each soldier in the dataset. Principal components analysis was used to summarize these dimensions. RESULTS: Three correlated components explained the majority of O*NET dimension variance: "physical demands" (20.9% of variance), "interpersonal complexity" (17.5%), and "substantive complexity" (15.0%). Although broadly consistent with civilian studies, several discrepancies were found with civilian results reflecting potentially important differences in the structure of job conditions in the Army versus the civilian labor force. CONCLUSIONS: Principal components scores for these scales provide a parsimonious characterization of key job conditions that can be used in future studies of the effects of MOS/AOC job conditions on diverse outcomes.

Gilman, SE, MY Ni, EC Dunn, J Breslau, KA McLaughlin, JW Smoller, and RH Perlis. “Contributions of the social environment to first-onset and recurrent mania.Mol Psychiatry (2014).Abstract

In treated cohorts, individuals with bipolar disorder are more likely to report childhood adversities and recent stressors than individuals without bipolar disorder; similarly, in registry-based studies, childhood adversities are more common among individuals who later become hospitalized for bipolar disorder. Because these types of studies rely on treatment-seeking samples or hospital diagnoses, they leave unresolved the question of whether or not social experiences are involved in the etiology of bipolar disorder. We investigated the role of childhood adversities and adulthood stressors in liability for bipolar disorder using data from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (n=33 375). We analyzed risk for initial-onset and recurrent DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition) manic episodes during the study's 3-year follow-up period. Childhood physical abuse and sexual maltreatment were associated with significantly higher risks of both first-onset mania (odds ratio (OR) for abuse: 2.23; 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.71, 2.91; OR for maltreatment: 2.10; CI=1.55, 2.83) and recurrent mania (OR for abuse: 1.55; CI=1.00, 2.40; OR for maltreatment: 1.60; CI=1.00, 2.55). In addition, past-year stressors in the domains of interpersonal instability and financial hardship were associated with a significantly higher risk of incident and recurrent mania. Exposure to childhood adversity potentiated the effects of recent stressors on adult mania. Our findings demonstrate a role of social experiences in the initial onset of bipolar disorder, as well as in its prospective course, and are consistent with etiologic models of bipolar disorder that implicate deficits in developmentally established stress-response pathways.Molecular Psychiatry advance online publication, 22 April 2014; doi:10.1038/mp.2014.36.

Mays, Darren, Stephen E Gilman, Richard Rende, George Luta, Kenneth P Tercyak, and Raymond S Niaura. “Influences of tobacco advertising exposure and conduct problems on smoking behaviors among adolescent males and females.Nicotine Tob Res 16, no. 6 (2014): 855-63.Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Adolescents with conduct problems are more likely to smoke, and tobacco advertising exposure may exacerbate this risk. Males' excess risk for conduct problems and females' susceptibility to advertising suggest gender-specific pathways to smoking. We investigated the associations between gender, conduct problems, and lifetime smoking and adolescents' exposure to tobacco advertising, and we examined prospective relationships with smoking behaviors. METHODS: Adolescents completed baseline (2001-2004; n = 541) and 5-year follow-up (2007-2009; n =320) interviews for a family study of smoking risk. Baseline interviews assessed conduct problems and tobacco advertising exposure; smoking behavior was assessed at both timepoints. Generalized linear models analyzed gender differences in the relationship between conduct problems, advertising exposure, and smoking behavior at baseline and longitudinally. RESULTS: At baseline, among males, conduct problems were associated with greater advertising exposure independent of demographics and lifetime smoking. Among females at baseline, conduct problems were associated with greater advertising exposure only among never-smokers after adjusting for demographics. In longitudinal analyses, baseline advertising exposure predicted subsequent smoking initiation (i.e., smoking their first cigarette between baseline and follow-up) for females but not for males. Baseline conduct problems predicted current (i.e., daily or weekly) smoking at follow-up for all adolescents in adjusted models. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study reinforce that conduct problems are a strong predictor of subsequent current smoking for all adolescents and reveal important differences between adolescent males and females in the relationship between conduct problems, tobacco advertising behavior, and smoking behavior. The findings suggest gender-specific preventive interventions targeting advertising exposure may be warranted.

Mays, Darren, Stephen E Gilman, Richard Rende, George Luta, Kenneth P Tercyak, and Raymond S Niaura. “Parental smoking exposure and adolescent smoking trajectories.Pediatrics 133, no. 6 (2014): 983-91.Abstract

OBJECTIVE: In a multigenerational study of smoking risk, the objective was to investigate the intergenerational transmission of smoking by examining if exposure to parental smoking and nicotine dependence predicts prospective smoking trajectories among adolescent offspring. METHODS: Adolescents (n = 406) ages 12 to 17 and a parent completed baseline interviews (2001-2004), and adolescents completed up to 2 follow-up interviews 1 and 5 years later. Baseline interviews gathered detailed information on parental smoking history, including timing and duration, current smoking, and nicotine dependence. Adolescent smoking and nicotine dependence were assessed at each time point. Latent Class Growth Analysis identified prospective smoking trajectory classes from adolescence into young adulthood. Logistic regression was used to examine relationships between parental smoking and adolescent smoking trajectories. RESULTS: Four adolescent smoking trajectory classes were identified: early regular smokers (6%), early experimenters (23%), late experimenters (41%), and nonsmokers (30%). Adolescents with parents who were nicotine-dependent smokers at baseline were more likely to be early regular smokers (odds ratio 1.18, 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.33) and early experimenters (odds ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.25) with each additional year of previous exposure to parental smoking. Parents' current non-nicotine-dependent and former smoking were not associated with adolescent smoking trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to parental nicotine dependence is a critical factor influencing intergenerational transmission of smoking. Adolescents with nicotine-dependent parents are susceptible to more intense smoking patterns and this risk increases with longer duration of exposure. Research is needed to optimize interventions to help nicotine-dependent parents quit smoking early in their children's lifetime to reduce these risks.

Gilman, SE, EJ Bromet, KL Cox, LJ Colpe, CS Fullerton, MJ Gruber, SG Heeringa, et al.Sociodemographic and career history predictors of suicide mortality in the United States Army 2004-2009.Psychol Med 44, no. 12 (2014): 2579-92.Abstract

BACKGROUND: The US Army suicide rate has increased sharply in recent years. Identifying significant predictors of Army suicides in Army and Department of Defense (DoD) administrative records might help focus prevention efforts and guide intervention content. Previous studies of administrative data, although documenting significant predictors, were based on limited samples and models. A career history perspective is used here to develop more textured models. METHOD: The analysis was carried out as part of the Historical Administrative Data Study (HADS) of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). De-identified data were combined across numerous Army and DoD administrative data systems for all Regular Army soldiers on active duty in 2004-2009. Multivariate associations of sociodemographics and Army career variables with suicide were examined in subgroups defined by time in service, rank and deployment history. RESULTS: Several novel results were found that could have intervention implications. The most notable of these were significantly elevated suicide rates (69.6-80.0 suicides per 100 000 person-years compared with 18.5 suicides per 100 000 person-years in the total Army) among enlisted soldiers deployed either during their first year of service or with less than expected (based on time in service) junior enlisted rank; a substantially greater rise in suicide among women than men during deployment; and a protective effect of marriage against suicide only during deployment. CONCLUSIONS: A career history approach produces several actionable insights missed in less textured analyses of administrative data predictors. Expansion of analyses to a richer set of predictors might help refine understanding of intervention implications.

Pabayo, Roman, Ichiro Kawachi, and Stephen E Gilman. “Income inequality among American states and the incidence of major depression.J Epidemiol Community Health 68, no. 2 (2014): 110-5.Abstract

BACKGROUND: Although cross-sectional and ecological studies have shown that higher area-level income inequality is related to increased risk for depression, few longitudinal studies have been conducted. This investigation examines the relationship between state-level income inequality and major depression among adults participating in a population-based, representative longitudinal study. METHODS: We used data from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (n=34 653). Respondents completed structured diagnostic interviews at baseline (2001-2002) and follow-up (2004-2005). Weighted multilevel modelling was used to determine if U.S. state-level income inequality (measured by the Gini coefficient) was a significant predictor of depression at baseline and at follow-up, while controlling for individual-level and state-level covariates. We also repeated the longitudinal analyses, excluding those who had a history of depression or at baseline, in order to test whether income inequality was related to incident depression. RESULTS: State-level inequality was associated with increased incidence of depression among women but not men. In comparison to women residing in states belonging to the lowest quintile of income inequality, women were at increased risk for depression in the second (OR=1.18, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.62), third (OR=1.22, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.62), fourth (OR=1.37, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.82) and fifth (OR=1.50, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.96) quintiles at follow-up (p<0.05 for the linear trend). CONCLUSIONS: Living in a state with higher income inequality increases the risk for the development of depression among women.

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