Publications

Forthcoming
Cavallo, Alberto, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman, and Jenny Tang. Forthcoming. “Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy.” American Economic Review: Insights. Publisher's Version
2020
Gita Gopinath, Emine Boz, Camila Casas Federico Diez Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas Mikkel Plagborg-Moller. 2020. “Dominant Currency Paradigm.” American Economic Review 110 (3): 677-719. Publisher's Version
dcp.pdf
Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Gita Gopinath, Prachi Mishra Abhinav Narayan. 2020. “Cash and the Economy: Evidence from India’s Demonetization.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 135 (1): 57–103. Publisher's Version
dmnzn.pdf
2019
Emine Boz, Gita Gopinath, Mikkel Plagborg-Moller. 2019. “Dollar Invoicing and the Heterogeneity of Exchange Rate Pass-Through.” American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings 109: 527-32. Publisher's Version
dollar_invoicing.pdf
2018
Gopinath, Gita, and Jeremy C. Stein. 2018. “Trade Invoicing, Bank Funding, and Central Bank Reserve Holdings.” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 108: 542-46. Publisher's Version
TradeInvoicing_GopinathStein_AEA
Barbiero, Omar, Emmanuel Farhi, Gita Gopinath, and Oleg Itskhoki. 2018. “The Macroeconomics of Border Taxes.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual. Publisher's Version
w24702.pdf
2017
Blanchard, Olivier, and Larry Summers. 2017. “Evolution or Revolution: Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy.” Evolution or Revolution? Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy after the Great Recession. Publisher's Version
Gopinath, Gita. 2017. “Comments on "The Reallocation Myth" by Chang-Tai Hsieh and Pete Klenow.” Proceedings of the Jackson Hole Symposium.
discussion.pdf
Gopinath, Gita. 2017. “A Macroeconomic Perspective on Border Taxes.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.
ba0817d.pdf
Gopinath, Gita, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Loukas Karabarbounis, and Carolina Villegas-Sanchez. 2017. “Capital Allocation and Productivity in South Europe.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 132 (4): 1915-1967. Publisher's Version
PDF
2016
Gopinath, Gita. 2016. “A Comment on "From Chronic Inflation to Chronic Deflation" by Guillermo Calvo.” The State of Economics, The State of the World. MIT Press.
calvo_note_01.pdf
Gopinath, Gita. 2016. “The International Price System.” Jackson Hole Symposium Proceedings. NBER Digest, January 2016
IPS paper and appendix data_invoice_currencies
2015
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Emmanuel Farhi, and Gita Gopinath. 2015. “Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 130 (4): 1727-1779. Publisher's Version
coordination_and_crisis_in_monetary_unions.pdf
2014
Aguiar, Mark, Manuel Amador, Emmanuel Farhi, and Gita Gopinath. 2014. “Sovereign Debt Booms in Monetary Unions.” American Economic Review P&P 104 (5): 101-06. Publisher's Version Abstract
We propose a continuous time model to investigate the impact of inflation credibility on sovereign debt dynamics. At every point in time, an impatient government decides fiscal surplus and inflation, without commitment. Inflation is costly, but reduces the real value of outstanding nominal debt. In equilibrium, debt dynamics is the result of two opposing forces: (i) impatience and (ii) the desire to conquer low inflation. A large increase in inflation credibility can trigger a process of debt accumulation. This rationalizes the sovereign debt booms that are often experienced by low inflation credibility countries upon joining a currency union.
final_paper.pdf
Gopinath, Gita, and Brent Neiman. 2014. “Trade Adjustment and Productivity in Large Crises.” American Economic Review 104 (3): 793-831. Publisher's Version Abstract
We empirically characterize the mechanics of trade adjustment during the Argentine crisis. Though imports collapsed by 70 percent from 2000-2002, the entry and exit of firms or products at the country level played a small role. The within-firm churning of imported inputs, however, played a sizeable role. We build a model of trade in intermediate inputs with heterogeneous firms, fixed import costs, and roundabout production. Import demand is non-homothetic and the implications of an import price shock depend on the full distribution of firm-level adjustments. An import price shock generates a significant decline in productivity.

 

PDF
Burstein, Ariel, and Gita Gopinath. 2014. “International Prices and Exchange Rates.” Handbook of International Economics, 4th ed., 4: 391-451. Elsevier. Publisher's Version Abstract

We survey the recent empirical and theoretical developments in the literature on the relation between prices and exchange rates. After updating some of the major findings in the empirical literature we present a simple framework to interpret this evidence. We review theoretical models that generate insensitivity of prices to exchange rate changes through variable markups, both under flexible prices and nominal rigidities, first in partial equilibrium and then in general equilibrium.

prices_oct20_2015.pdf

Preliminary January 2013.  Prepared for the Handbook of International Economics, Vol. IV.

Farhi, Emmanuel, Gita Gopinath, and Oleg Itskhoki. 2014. “Fiscal Devaluations.” Review of Economic Studies 81 (2): 725-760. Publisher's Version Abstract

We show that even when the exchange rate cannot be devalued, a small set of conventional fiscal instruments can robustly replicate the real allocations attained under a nominal exchange rate devaluation in a dynamic New Keynesian open economy environment. We perform the analysis under alternative pricing assumptions—producer or local currency pricing, along with nominal wage stickiness; under arbitrary degrees of asset market completeness and for general stochastic sequences of devaluations. There are two types of fiscal policies equivalent to an exchange rate devaluation—one, a uniform increase in import tariff and export subsidy, and two, a value-added tax increase and a uniform payroll tax reduction. When the devaluations are anticipated, these policies need to be supplemented with a consumption tax reduction and an income tax increase. These policies are revenue neutral. In certain cases equivalence requires, in addition, a partial default on foreign bond holders. We discuss the issues of implementation of these policies, in particular, under the circumstances of a currency union.

 

fd-final.pdf Static version of model Presentation Slides
2013
Gopinath, Gita. 2013. “Comment on Individual Price Adjustment along the Extensive Margin.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2012. Vol. 27. University of Chicago Press.
c12754.pdf
2012
Gopinath, Gita, Oleg Itskhoki, and Brent Neiman. 2012. “Trade Prices and the Global Trade Collapse of 2008-09.” IMF Economic Review 60 (3): 303-328. Publisher's Version Abstract

We document the behavior of trade prices during the Great Trade Collapse of 2008-2009 using transaction-level data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. First, we find that differentiated manufactures exhibited marked stability in their trade prices during the large decline in their trade volumes. Prices of non-differentiated manufactures, by contrast, declined sharply. Second, while the trade collapse was much steeper among differentiated durable manufacturers than among non-durables, prices in both categories barely changed. Third, despite this lack of movement in average price levels, the frequency and magnitude of price adjustments at the product level noticeably changed with the onset of the crisis.

PDF
2011
Gopinath, Gita. 2011. “Review of Economic Dynamics Newsletter, Volume 13, Issue 1.” Interview on Sovereign Default, 13:1. Publisher's Version

Pages